Why do mortgage interest rates increase or decrease in the Netherlands?
If you plan to buy a property in the Netherlands, one of the first questions on your mind probably pops up: when is a good time to buy a home? and how to predict when mortgage interest rates will increase or decrease. This article reviews the key factors that influence Dutch mortgage interest rates and provides insights on how to recognize market trends.
Which factors influence mortgage interest rates?
Economic factors—both microeconomic and macroeconomic—such as inflation, global events, central bank policies, and competition among mortgage lenders play an important role in shaping mortgage interest rates in the Netherlands.
Mortgage lenders: With more than 40 mortgage lenders operating in the Dutch market, homebuyers have access to a wide range of interest rate options. This competitive landscape encourages lenders to frequently adjust their rates and offer attractive mortgage terms and conditions.
European Central Bank (ECB) sets interest rates that influence borrowing costs across Europe, including the Netherlands. This is a macro factor that affects all mortgage lenders and borrowers. The ECB’s rate adjust interest rate a few times a year to fight inflation and boost spending.
Fixed or variable interest rate directly affects your mortgage interest rate and monthly payments. Choosing a longer fixed-rate period usually means a higher interest rate, because the lender takes on more risk by locking in the rate for a longer time. A variable rate or shorter fixed period often starts lower, but your payments can increase if interest rates go up.
Loan-to-Value (LTV) ratio: the LTV ratio compares the amount of your mortgage to the value of your home. A higher LTV—meaning you are borrowing a larger percentage of the property's value—usually results in a higher interest rate, because it represents more risk to the lender.
National Mortgage Guarantee (NHG): mortgages backed by NHG generally come with lower interest rates because the guarantee reduces the lender’s risk. NGH acts as a safeguard, making mortgages more affordable for homeowners. To benefit from the lower interest rate, you must meet NHG’s eligibility criteria.
Global events: such as geopolitical conflicts, pandemics, or financial crises—can significantly impact mortgage interest rates. For example, during the COVID-19 pandemic, Dutch interest rates dropped to historically low levels, reaching around 1.5%. In contrast, interest rates increased significantly in 2022 when energy prices peaked and the war in Ukraine began.
Policies, economy and housing market: Mortgage interest rates are influenced by economic growth indicators like GDP and unemployment—when the economy grows and demand for mortgages rises, lenders often increase rates to manage the market. Housing market conditions also play a role; fewer homes for sale typically reduce mortgage demand, causing rates to fluctuate.
What are the current mortgage interest rates in the Netherlands?
As of 2025, Dutch mortgage interest rates vary depending on the fixed period, lender, and property details such as the energy label. For example, 10-year fixed mortgage rates start around 3.77% for properties with an energy label B, and can rise up to 4.69%. Variable mortgage rates currently range between 3.5% and 3.7%.
To find the best rate for your situation, you can use our online mortgage comparison tool, which includes offers from 40+ mortgage lending institutions:
Other well known lenders: Florius, Obvion, BLG Wonen, MUNT Hypotheken, Nationale‑Nederlanden, Aegon, A.S.R., Vista Hypotheken, HollandWoont, Neo Hypotheken, Merius Hypotheek, Lot Hypotheek.
Specialized mortgage lenders:
Argenta, Hypotrust, Moneyou, Dynamic Credit, Robuust Hypotheken, Tulp Hypotheken, Veen Hypotheken, Syntrus Achmea, Allianz, NIBC Direct, Central Beheer, Woonnu.
Important: not all of these lenders work directly with clients. Many mortgage providers in the Netherlands—especially smaller or specialized institutions—only offer their products through independent mortgage advisors or brokers.
Are mortgage interest rates expected to drop or increase in the Netherlands?
The three largest banks in the Netherlands—Rabobank, ABN AMRO, and ING—expect mortgage interest rates to slightly decrease in 2025.
The ECB has started lowering its base rates to support the cooling economy and curb inflation—this trend is expected to continue, bringing down both short- and long-term mortgage rates.
Short-term fixed rates (e.g., 1–5 years) are likely to fall more significantly—potentially by 0.75% to 1%, while long-term rates (e.g., 10 years or more) may drop more modestly, around 0.5%.
What will interest rates do in 2026?
At this moment, there are no exact mortgage interest rate predictions for 2026, but current projections suggest rates may stay stable or slightly decrease. This outlook is influenced by factors such as income growth, housing demand, and overall economic conditions. Keep in mind that actual rates could change due to unforeseen economic or global developments.
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