We are approaching the end of the year, which means many potential future homebuyers are wondering what the interest rates will look like in 2026. Whether you are preparing to buy your first home or considering refinancing, understanding how interest rates might develop can help you make confident and informed financial decisions.
How does interest play an important role?
Interest rates are one of the most important factors in determining your mortgage costs. Even a small change in rates can have a big impact on your monthly payments, maximum mortgage, and borrowing capacity.
Every mortgage payment includes two parts:
Principal – the amount borrowed.
Interest – the cost of borrowing that money.
When interest rates rise, a larger portion of your payment is allocated toward interest, resulting in higher monthly costs. When rates fall, borrowing becomes cheaper, making it easier to manage payments or qualify for a larger loan.
In simple terms:
Higher rates reduce your borrowing power — you may need a higher down payment or a smaller loan.
Lower rates improve affordability and can help you purchase a larger or better-located home.
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How interest rates performed in 2025
The past decade has been a period of dramatic shifts in Dutch interest rates. After years of near-zero rates during the 2010s, the European Central Bank (ECB) sharply increased rates in 2022–2023 to curb inflation. This caused Dutch mortgage rates to climb to around 5% at their peak.
As inflation slowed in 2024, the European Central Bank started to cut its policy rates. By mid-2025, the deposit rate had fallen to 2%, signalling a shift toward a steadier financial climate.
With prices now close to the ECB’s 2% goal, the Dutch mortgage market has become more balanced and predictable. Major banks such expect mortgage rates to stay broadly stable into early 2026.
What can we expect interest rates to do in 2026?
The outlook for interest rates in 2026 is closely tied to the ECB’s policies, local regulations, and the state of the economy. In its recent review in September, the ECB stated that interest rates are near the end of the current cycle, with no major cuts expected in the near future.
ECB deposit rate: likely to stay at 2%.
Inflation: expected to ease slightly to 1.7% in 2026.
Economic growth: forecast at around 1.0%, showing a stable but modest pace.
The ECB is expected to take a careful, data-driven approach — keeping prices stable while supporting steady economic growth.
According to ABN AMRO:
Short-term mortgage rates (variable and 1–5-year fixed) are expected to remain close to current levels after earlier declines.
Long-term rates (10 years and above) could stay stable or rise slightly, reflecting consistent bond yields and a modest risk premium.
Overall, mortgage interest rates in 2026 are forecast to move within a narrow range, with no major increases expected.
Other insights
Other financial experts expect mortgage rates to remain broadly unchanged or edge slightly lower in 2026, by roughly 0.4 to 0.8 percentage points compared to the end of 2025.
What this means for homebuyers
If you plan to purchase a home in 2026, stable rates can be good news. Predictability allows you to plan your budget and financing with more confidence.
Here’s what to keep in mind:
Mortgage rates are likely to stay close to current levels.
Monthly affordability should remain manageable for most households.
This article will be updated as new data and sources become available. For more information, contact our mortgage advisors.
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